Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 1.625032 2.135834 2.822038 3.833905 5.327902e+00 7.519818e+00 1.111312e+01
2024-12-15 1.177004 1.766779 2.708679 4.411128 7.628080e+00 1.397100e+01 2.910206e+01
2024-12-22 0.882597 1.477284 2.577256 4.969894 1.073936e+01 2.647263e+01 8.696740e+01
2024-12-29 0.692488 1.276859 2.513749 5.739056 1.582267e+01 5.639855e+01 3.705502e+02
2025-01-05 0.548861 1.100814 2.419119 6.505277 2.324707e+01 1.307028e+02 2.723592e+03
2025-01-12 0.412804 0.880493 2.103714 6.452044 2.894680e+01 2.599377e+02 3.381918e+04
2025-01-19 0.309994 0.693631 1.772048 6.067044 3.342526e+01 4.920875e+02 3.722328e+06
2025-01-26 0.252613 0.596016 1.643286 6.412242 4.601533e+01 1.467058e+03 NaN
2025-02-02 0.219247 0.548273 1.647791 7.512119 7.632960e+01 9.707090e+03 NaN
2025-02-09 0.195748 0.518821 1.704574 9.211220 1.439017e+02 3.729206e+05 NaN
2025-02-16 0.168545 0.466375 1.639914 10.157875 2.348548e+02 2.396015e+12 NaN
2025-02-23 0.140554 0.400051 1.472072 10.026229 3.137023e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 0.114689 0.333892 1.274835 9.400459 3.873638e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 0.100996 0.305442 1.242519 10.552997 7.544468e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 0.088946 0.278210 1.198428 11.631626 1.532310e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 0.079763 0.258316 1.181982 13.290731 3.959378e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 0.071537 0.238941 1.154819 14.929596 1.180853e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 0.061653 0.208943 1.036550 14.354821 2.044389e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.052675 0.179918 0.905284 13.021269 2.671876e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.047243 0.164583 0.858521 13.628026 8.736038e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.044060 0.158101 0.871208 16.162903 1.816871e+06 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.041780 0.154924 0.908434 20.298479 NaN NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.038493 0.145724 0.889297 22.520782 NaN NaN NaN